Summer Horse Racing Outlook

Insight and commentary on the world of thoroughbred horse racing.

Thoughts and opinions about the fascinating sport of thoroughbred horse racing from a racing insider.

Last Thoughts on the Belmont, First Thoughts on the Rest of the Year

The Belmont Stakes day card was a pedigree lovers dream. Rags to Riches made her dam, the 11-year-old Deputy Minister daughter Better Than Honour, quite possibly the most valuable broodmare in the world. Producing two Belmont Stakes winners in two years will do that. Tiago also put his dam, Set Them Free, in rarified air with his Classic placing in the Belmont. She had previously produced 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo.

In the Just A Game earlier in the day, My Typhoon dusted Wait A While and it’s hard to find a pedigree any better than hers. She was purchased for over $2.9 million as a weanling and after multiple graded wins she is worth every penny of that and more. She’s the seventh foal and sixth stakes winner out of her dam, Urban Sea, who just so happens to be a winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Urban Sea’s other foals include Epsom Derby winner Galileo, multiple Group 1 winner Black Sam Bellamy and the Group 3 winner and Epsom Oaks runner up All Too Beautiful.

Steven Crist hit it right on the money when he commented on the dismal on track attendance at this year’s Belmont (only 46,870 fans showed up, the first time since 1996 that attendance was less than 50,000). Mr. Crist hypothesized that the Belmont was simply victim of its own success. With crushing crowds of over 100,000 in 2002, 2003 and 2004, Belmont was anything but an enjoyable place to spend a Saturday afternoon. Lines were long to eat and bet and getting in and out of the Long Island track proved maddening. I was at Belmont with my sister and 120,000 or so other folks when Smarty Jones tried to make history in 2004. It took us literally three hours to leave the track by train, much of that time spent packed like cattle on the platform connecting the grandstand to the terminal. She lives about a half hour away from Belmont but hasn’t been back since.

Belmont isn’t like the other Triple Crown tracks or Triple Crown events to begin with. There is no infield access, no sense of it being a big spring party like at the Derby and Preakness. And, well, Belmont’s in the Northeast. I’ve lived most of my life in either New York state or Kentucky and there is something to be said for southern hospitality and camaraderie at big events. It’s just a lot easier and more fun, for whatever reason, to be among a six figure crowd in Louisville or Baltimore than it is on Long Island. I don’t blame people for being turned off by the whole Belmont experience and finally staying away. I just wish I had gone this year. I could have enjoyed a laid back day of stellar racing at one of America’s best tracks and seen a little history in the process.

Ok enough looking back, let’s look ahead to what promises to be an exciting summer of racing:

One of the first big showdowns of the summer should come on July 7 at Calder when the top sprinters Smokey Stover and Fabulous Strike square off. Those two own four of the five highest Beyer Speed Figures sprinting this year.

If there is and older horse out there capable of defeating Invasor I haven’t seen him. I had hoped Master Command would step up in the Stephen Foster last week, but he seemed to lose interest after being bumped going into the first turn. He’ll need to be a lot tougher than that to beat Invasor. One intriguing possibility is Commentator, who won the Whitney in 2005 after a thrilling duel with Saint Liam. The oft-injured gelding looked good in his comeback, trouncing New York-breds a few weeks ago.

After reading the comments from Asmussen, Jones and Nafzger in recent weeks, my guess is that of the big three colts, only Curlin will show up for the Haskell at Monmouth on August 5. Hard Spun and Street Sense should square off in the Jim Dandy at Saratoga the weekend prior as their prep for the Travers. Fingers crossed they all make it to the Midsummer Derby on August 25.

And what about Rags to Riches? Co-owner Michael Tabor said after the Belmont that he’s keen on winning the prestigious Alabama (at Saratoga on August 18). If all three big colts look likely for the Travers a week later I expect she’ll indeed add the Alabama to her owners’ trophy case. Mr. Tabor also mentioned trying the Breeders’ Cup Classic and that makes sense to me for her next start against males. If she can stay unbeaten the rest of the year, even against fillies, she could steal Horse of the Year away from Invasor should she somehow, some way, beat him at Monmouth on the last Saturday in October.

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Matt O'Neil has been a racing enthusiast since the mid 1980's. He currently works for Taylor Made Stallions, Inc. in Central Kentucuky and is published regularly in Owner-Breeder International and The Florida-Horse. Contact Matt O'Neil