Kentucky Derby Workouts

Rules For Picking The Kentucky Derby

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Kentucky derby Workouts

I had hoped to have a little more clarity on this year’s Derby by now. But because I’m a chronically bad morning person and so many Derby horses seem to be doing exceptionally well, I’m probably more confused than ever with only six days to go.

I embarked on an ambitious weekend schedule to close out Pre-Derby week – three early mornings at two racetracks in two cities, viewing as many Derby contenders as I could get my eyes on.

Day One on Friday morning went well. First of all, I was actually able to out of bed at 6 a. m., never a sure thing, even with the best of intentions, as we’ll soon see. Secondly, I was able to see Hard Spun, Teuflesburg and the three Doug O’Neill colts Liquidity, Cobalt Blue, Great Hunter at Keeneland.

Hard Spun was just out for a routine gallop under trainer Larry Jones and he made by far the most favorable impression. He’s an extremely attractive horse with good substance and a smooth, powerful look. He also looked extremely ‘happy’ to me, as silly as that may sound. Or better put: he’s a horse with a ton of quality and he couldn’t be doing any better. He’s looking more and more appealing, especially at expected odds of around 10-1.

Cobalt Blue was probably the least impressive of the horses I saw that morning. He worked six furlongs in 1:11.80 which, as it turns out, was the second fastest of the 10 workers at the distance. Oops. Maybe I was wrong, but he just didn’t seem to be finishing with much gusto. Of course he could sprout wings like Pegasus and I still won’t be using him on my Derby ticket.

One horse I’m now a little intrigued by after seeing him Friday is Liquidity. He’s a pretty attractive horse, built like a distance runner, long and lean. His was asked for some run in his work and had a few ‘choppy’ strides down the lane, but when he leveled off he has a very smooth stride and covers a lot of ground. From what I hear, Doug O’Neill has always thought Liquidity was the most talented of his three-year-old colts. I’m not sure if his work today (which earned the bullet – 6F in 1:11.60) was the key to unlocking his potential, but he’s usable in the exotics at 60-1 or so next Saturday.

Great Hunter also worked six furlongs Friday morning in 1:13, the third fastest work at the distance. He’s not as big and physically imposing a horse as I thought he was and he’s actually quite a bit more athletic than I’ve been lead to believe. He’s a nice enough horse who worked nicely enough Friday morning. He’s still in the top tier of the horses I’m considering for the exotics.

Teufelsburg was out for his routine gallop. With the knowledge that he cost just $8,000 as a yearling I was expecting to see an overachieving train wreck of a horse. He’s not the biggest horse in the world, but he’s actually a rather attractive colt who looks to be holding his condition well. Of course, he’ another that I won’t be using on Derby Day either way.

I was hoping to roll out of bed and be on the backside at Churchill Downs by daybreak on Saturday morning. However, when I woke up it was already light and by the time I got to the track Curlin and Street Sense, the two main horses I wanted to see, were already back at their barns.

I did see some Oaks horses, namely Dreaming of Anna. With her form this year, it will be hard to bet her against Rags to Riches, but she looked awesome going on the track. I somehow missed her work, but she apparently worked great.

The only Derby horse I saw for sure was Storm in May. He’s just a horse, nothing flashy, but he’s the only gray in the field, for those who take such things into account. I may have seen Sam P., but Todd Pletcher doesn’t use the ‘Derby’ saddle towels given out by Churchill. It was actually kind of amusing listening to the media guys wondering which Pletcher horse was actually Sam P. His rider supposedly had a white helmet on, but there was another with a half white, half blue helmet.

Back to Keeneland for Sunday morning. I woke up earlier, but still just missed Any Given Saturday. So despite all my efforts, I still haven’t seen the two favorites, Curlin and Street Sense, or my likely pick in person. I really wish I was a morning person.

I was able to see Hard Spun again and he again impressed. It looked like he was asked for a little more in his gallop today than on Friday and he’s scheduled to work at Churchill tomorrow (Derby Monday).
I was also there in time to see the other two Pletcher horses, Circular Quayand Scat Daddy work for the final time pre-Derby.

There were about 100 people hanging around the Keeneland gap and grandstand scoping out the Derby horses. There probably weren’t that many at Churchill Downs yesterday, which is usually a zoo by now in the mornings leading up to Derby.

Circular Quay isn’t much to look at, but that’s not to say he’s not doing well. He’s just a smallish, somewhat out of proportion colt, with neck that appears a bit too long and a hind end that drops off before it should. Of course the Derby isn’t a beauty pageant. He worked with Oaks favorite Rags to Riches and she is a much more impressive physical specimen and she looks fantastic. She should fire her best shot on Oaks Day.

This Derby got a lot tougher for me after seeing Scat Daddy for the first time in person. I think I’ve underestimated him all spring, mainly because I’m not sure he really wants a mile and a quarter. He is built like a distance runner though and is a very attractive and classy animal. His work this morning was impressive too. He wasn’t asked for much, none of the Pletcher horses were, but he is clearly in great form and he covers a lot of ground with each stride. He’s a must use on Derby day, and now I won’t be all that surprised if he won.

When I got back home, I cheated a little bit and watched the replays of Cowtown Cat’s work on Saturday at Keeneland and the work I missed from Any Given Saturday this morning. Cowtown looked awesome and I really have to think long and hard about what I’m going to do with him on the big day. I went back and watched his previous Keeneland work and it was like night and day. He was much more powerful and willing yesterday, even though again, he wasn’t asked for any run. I just have a gut feeling about this horse…. I just can’t decide whether or not to ignore it.

‘On tape’ Any Given Saturday looked pretty good to me too in his final work. He was well in hand but seemed to finish with good energy. I think he’s back on his best form, but now after seeing some of the other contenders I’m starting to wonder ‘Is he good enough?’

By the way you too can view the workouts by the Keenleand-based Derby (and Oaks) horses at the Keeneland website www.keeneland.com.

I hope to make it out to Churchill once again on Wednesday morning. Hopefully by then I’ll have a final Derby decision.

Matt O'Neil has been a racing enthusiast since the mid-1980's. He is a freelance writer and thoroughbred marketing consultant and editor of the breeding journal Owner-Breeder International. Contact Matt O'Neil