Kentucky Derby Watch List

Insight and commentary on the world of thoroughbred horse racing.

Ranking the 2007 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Kentucky Derby contenders and rankings.

The Kentucky Derby Festival officially kicks off in Louisville with an air show and massive fireworks display over the Ohio River tonight. The Lexington Stakes, the last graded Derby prep will be run at Keeneland this afternoon. The winner of that race will earn a pass into the Derby starting gate, but probably not into true Derby contention.

In other words by the time the post Thunder Over Louisville hangovers wear off on Sunday, the field for the 133rd Kentucky Derby will be all but set and Louisville will be in full Derby bloom.

So people get ready there’s a Derby coming. Below is the updated Horse Blog Derby Contenders Rankings. I’ve taken Sam P. and Officer Rocket off the list. The former was an uninspiring third in an uninspiring Santa Anita Derby, while the latter was removed from Derby consideration by his connections after a poor run in the Arkansas Derby. I’ve grudgingly added Scat Daddy and Curlin and not so grudgingly added Cowtown Cat.

There is still two weeks to use workouts, trainer comments, further study and intuition to fine tune the selections, but this is where I’m at as of now:

Any Given Saturday became my Derby horse back in January after I reviewed his juvenile races. He overcame bad posts to win maiden and allowance races and ran a green second to the unbeaten (now injured) Tiz Wonderful in the Kentucky Jockey Club last November at Churchill Downs. There was just something about this horse I liked, and I figured he’d only get better. Now after three races this spring, my confidence has been shaken some. I’m especially concerned about his last race in the Wood Memorial, where he struggled in the final sixteenth of a mile.

A valid argument can be made that he simply bounced off his big effort three weeks prior in the Tampa Bay Derby, a nose defeat to Street Sense after a stretch long duel. He also didn’t look all that comfortable to me on the Aqueduct surface in the early stages of the race, but still made a three wide bid for the lead at the top of the stretch, before falling flat. I incorporate the Ragozin Sheets into my Derby handicapping and his pattern is almost exactly the same as another WinStar Farm Derby starter Bluegrass Cat. He too ran a big number in the 2006 Tampa Bay Derby after a professional win in the Sam F. Davis, only to run a poor race in the Blue Grass. If not for a freak named Barbaro, Bluegrass Cat wears the roses last year. I’ll need to feel like Any Given Saturday is thriving in his training the next two weeks, but for now he’s still getting my money on Derby Day.

The two horses that scare me most are Street Sense and Hard Spun. I loved Street Sense in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall, but the criticisms of that performance are legitimate (a perfect trip on a golden rail). He again got the inside trip vs. Any Given Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby and ran willingly in the Blue Grass Stakes. Like everyone else I have no idea what to make of that Polytrack race, but Street Sense has been trained to peak on May 5 by a guy who knows a thing or two about winning the Derby. (Carl Nazger has already said he won’t be kissing Street Sense’s owner Jim Tafel should he win though). The bottom line with this horse is that he’s all quality and has done nothing wrong since winning his record performance in the Breeders’ Cup.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Hard Spun is the leader of the three-year-old division by year’s end. This is a very talented horse, who seemed to have a legitimate excuse in his only career defeat in Oaklawn Park’s Southwest Stakes (didn’t handle the surface). He rebounded with a nice win in the Lane’s End. It’s true that he has yet to beat a top Derby contender and he is one of several stalking type runners heading to Churchill. It’s also true that his connections were considering skipping the Derby altogether last week and he’s coming to the race off a six week layoff. But by all reports his Derby-deciding work at Churchill Downs last week was awesome. He also has a very progressive line on The Sheets and I love the way this horse glides over the race track. He’s dangerous.

What to do with Great Hunter? I’ve been high on this horse all winter/spring. I loved his races at two, always putting in a big run in California sprint races and finally breaking through in the Breeders’ Futurity when shipped east and tried at two turns. He was checked twice in the stretch of the Blue Grass Stakes, but my first impression when I watched that race was: if he ran his race he would have gone on by Teufelsburg and avoided that trouble altogether. Author Sean Clancy expressed similar sentiments in his Bloodhorse.com blog, so it wasn’t just me. Afterall, he did win the Breeders’ Futurity on the same surface and his lack of acceleration when called upon shouldn’t have been a result of him not handling that surface. But with all the confusion about the Blue Grass in general, you can probably forgive the effort. For now though I’m just going to use him underneath in the exotics.

Chelokee might not even make the Derby field, especially with the connections of hopeless longshot Imawildandcrazyguy now considering a run at the roses. It’s pretty simple with this horse. He’s had two absolutely horrendous trips in his last two races, but got up to win an allowance race (over Wood runner-up Sightseeing) and to run third to Scat Daddy and Notional in the Florida Derby. Oh yeah and he’s trained by Michael Matz.

It’s hard to knock Nobiz Like Shobiz. He runs his race and tries every time, but I don’t think he’s really developed from two to three. Truthfully, it’s more of a gut feeling that he’ll be one of the main contenders that just doesn’t fire on Derby day.

Cowtown Cat is another gut feeling horse. He’s a cut below on numbers (both Beyers and Ragozin), but I liked his race in the Illinois Derby. It’s true he was able to coast along on an easy lead, but he showed very nice acceleration and should he be able to do that again with a stalking trip he can be a factor when they turn for home at Churchill. Really I’ve put him in contention because something about that race just struck me. But even logically it does appear that he’s a horse headed in the right direction at the right time for the right connections.

I’ve resisted putting Scat Daddy on this list all year long. I still don’t believe that he’s a true mile and a quarter horse, but his last Ragozin Sheet number is good enough to win the Derby this year. He also gives his best every time out and he actually reminds me of another Pletcher-Scatuorchio runner named More Than Ready. That tough little horse ran his heart out when fourth to Fusaichi Pegasus in the 2000 Derby. I like others chances better (obviously), but Scat Daddy should be in the top third of the field at the wire and could pull off the win if things set up just right.

Curlin has been the most impressive three-year-old colt this spring. Even though he beat a pretty dreadful field in the Arkansas Derby I was impressed by his professionalism as well as his brilliance. He patiently tracked Deadly Dealer in second and when Slew by Slew charged past him to take on the leader, he didn’t flinch (and Robby Albarado didn’t panic either). When asked a little later in the race, Curlin simply cruised to the leaders and rolled on home. As I detailed in my last post, Curlin has a lot of history against him and I feel it’s likely that he’s already reached his peak for now. But since I’ve been known to be completely wrong (on occasion), I’ll at least put him in contention for now.

Despite his deep closing style, I’ve never been convinced that Circular Quay is a true distance loving horse. Sure his sire won the Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Travers, but his grandsire, Champion Sprinter Gulch, had distance limitations and his dam was a sprinter/miler. He’s basically has had only one prep race this year, an impressive (and fast) win in the Louisiana Derby. In his previous race he was stopped in his tracks by the fallen Slew’s Tizzy and not persevered with in the stretch run. He has not run since the Louisiana Derby and will be going into the Derby off an eight week layoff without having run longer than a mile and a sixteenth. He’s worked well since skipping his final prep in the Wood Memorial, so I don’t think he injured. He’s just a small statured horse who ran a huge number and needed some extra rest. Todd Pletcher uses the The Sheets and knows his horses intimately despite having a far flung operation. He’s probably done what’s best for Circular Quay in the long run (not over racing a physically slight horse who was probably going to bounce with shorter rest anyway), but my money says he hasn’t done what’s best to make this horse a Derby winner.

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Matt O'Neil has been a racing enthusiast since the mid-1980's. He is a freelance writer and thoroughbred marketing consultant and editor of the breeding journal Owner-Breeder International. Contact Matt O'Neil