Can Curlin win the Kentucky Derby

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Old School vs. New School - Can Curlin win the Kentucky Derby?

A coworker of mine, I’ll call him Leif, has been convinced that Curlin is the Kentucky Derby winner ever since the colt broke his maiden first time out by 12 ¾ lengths back in early February.

“Hold on a minute,” I told him. “This horse has only run once and didn’t race as a two year-old. He may be a nice horse, but he can’t win the Derby.”

Then Curlin came back to win the Rebel Stakes last Saturday, in his stakes and two-turn debut, looking just as impressive as he did in his maiden win. Now Leif is even more excited about the horse and hardly ten minutes goes by without the word ‘Curlin’ popping out of his mouth.

“Hold on a minute,” I again told Leif. “This horse has only run twice and didn’t race as a two year-old. He may be a nice horse, but he can’t win the Derby.”

Now I’m a 23-year veteran of the Derby wars and Leif has a total of 23 years on the planet. I’m trying to help the kid out. He should be listening to me, his more experienced elder, shouldn’t he?

I don’t make up the rules. We all know, even Leif, that no horse since 1888 has won the Derby without having raced at two. Of course, I’ve never been in the habit of defending rules ‘just because’ and I’ve learned the hard way, in life and in horse racing, that things inevitably change.

I felt pretty stupid that I didn’t even consider Winning Colors in 1988 because she was not weighted on the Experimental Handicap as a two year-old (even on the filly side). I also felt silly after I didn’t seriously consider Strike the Gold three years later because his ‘Dosage’ was too high.

I learned my lessons though, and took extra satisfaction when Real Quiet won the 1998 Derby with a ‘Dosage’ that was supposedly too high and I was extra smug when Barbaro won the Derby last year despite a supposedly taboo five week layoff. Times change and its better to change along with them rather than get left behind.

So maybe I should be listening to Leif? But a Derby winner does seem to need some juvenile form and I’m not willing to budge on that point until proven wrong. I could go against the grain on another Derby ‘rule’ this year though, the one that says “thou shall have two prep races at three.”

It’s true that only one horse since the 1940’s has won the Derby with only two prep races as a sophomore. But I’m still willing to consider Street Sense and Great Hunter because they had tough juvenile campaigns and have come back at three with races that have shown that they’ve held or improved on that form.

But Curlin? He’ll have to beat me. And even though I’ve tried to steer the kid right, I’ll gladly accept the payment of our side bet. Leif will have to learn the hard way too I guess.

Goodbye to One of the Good Guys

You’ve never heard of James Heffern of Binghamton, New York, who died of a stroke on March 19. He was the father of my long time racing friend Brian and he nurtured his son’s love of horse racing and, by extension mine, over the years. Just as I’m trying to impart whatever experience and wisdom I may have gained in the horse racing game to Leif, Mr. Heffern did the same with Brian and myself. And while I’m proud of my 15 year streak at the Kentucky Derby, Mr. Heffern attended the races at Saratoga for an amazing 50 consecutive seasons, even when hobbled by multiple sclerosis the past few decades. They don’t make many racing fans like that anymore.

I remember a debate Mr. Heffern and I had at the local OTB parlor prior to the 1988 running of the Vosburgh Stakes. This 18 year-old know-it-all was convinced that Gulch was the best sprinter in the country and would win easily, while Mr. Heffern’s money was going on the Phipps color bearer Mining. My ego took a bit of blow when Gulch (shockingly) finished second to Mining. Mr. Heffern took a few good natured verbal jabs as he walked out of the OTB with full pockets. Of course, I was vindicated a few weeks later when Gulch won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint but the lesson was learned: these old guys still know a thing or two. Now that I’m becoming one of the old guys, I hope I can live up to Mr. Heffern’s example and help nurture a few of the ‘younger’ fans along.

Matt O'Neil has been a racing enthusiast since the mid-1980's. He is a freelance writer and thoroughbred marketing consultant and editor of the breeding journal Owner-Breeder International. Contact Matt O'Neil