Rules For Picking The Kentucky Derby

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Rules for picking the Kentucky Derby - Historical trends used to find the winner.

When I first started betting the Kentucky Derby in the 1984 the ‘rules’ for selecting a Derby winner were something like this:

1) Horse must have been rated within 10 pounds of the Experimental Handicap highweight (or be a foreign Champion)
2) Horse must have a ‘Dosage Index’ of 4.00 or below
3) Horse must have raced at two
4) Horse must have won at two
5) Horse must have had at least three prep races as a three-year-old
6) Horse must have raced within five weeks of the Kentucky Derby

In the past 23 years rule numbers 1, 2, 4, and 6 have all been broken.

Winning Colors was the first to break up the party, winning the 1988 Derby without having been weighted on the Experimental Handicap at all (even for fillies). Since then only five Derby winners were highly rated on the Experimental ‘Cap, and Giacomo is the only such winner this decade. (It’s an interesting to note though, that the 2007 Derby field will contain eight of the top 14 rated juveniles from last year, including the first six highweights. That’s a good indication of this crop’s overall durability and consistency).

Then Strike the Gold came along and won the Derby in 1991 with an ‘unacceptable’ Dosage Index. He has been followed since by Real Quiet (1998), Charismatic (1999) and Giacomo (2005).

The best Monarchos could do at two was a third place finish in his second start. But that didn’t stop him from winning the 2001 Kentucky Derby in the second fastest time in history. And then there is Barbaro, who won last year’s Derby off a five week layoff, the first horse since the 1950’s to wear the roses after such a lengthy break.

I have to admit that those rules used be comforting. Handicapping the Derby is an incredibly difficult proposition. Those rules probably never explained why so many horses didn’t win the Derby, but it was nice to have a reason, based in reality or not, to remove a bunch of contenders from consideration.

When handicapping the 2007 Derby field it’s probably a good idea to have a handle on this history surrounding the last two remaining trends. This is especially important since the likely first two choices could be thrown out if one still believes. So, with that in mind, let’s take a more detailed look at the last of the remaining ‘Derby Rules’.

Are You Experienced?

Likely Derby favorite Curlin did not race at two and will be making only his fourth start on May 5. He’s clearly been the most impressive three-year-old this spring so any discussion on whether Curlin can win the Derby begins and ends with the likelihood of him overcoming that historical obstacle.

There have been 52 Derby starters since 1944 that did not face the starter in their juvenile seasons. The vast majority of those runners were hopeless longshots in the Derby – they went off at average odds of around 26-1 (and that average would likely would be much higher if several of them were not included in the field or coupled with other entrants). There have been a few fancied runners, though, namely 1982 Derby favorite Air Forbes Won, the 7.90 -1 Strodes Creek in1994 and Pulpit, 5-70-1 in 1997 (and the morning line favorite if memory serves).

Air Forbes Won earned his favored status by winning the Gotham and the Wood Memorial in New York. Strodes Creek ran a close third in the Santa Anita Derby for Charlie Whittingham who was going for his third Derby after Ferdinand (1986) and Sunday Silence (1989). Pulpit made the sixth start of his young career in the Derby after winning the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass Stakes, with a second in the Florida Derby sandwiched in between.

It bodes well for Curlin that the horses that were bet like they had a chance, actually have run pretty well. The average finish position of all 52 horses in the sample was 9.5, while the average finish position of the nine (uncoupled) starters that went off at less than 10-1 was 5.7.

A few of those runners even made an impact on the race. Strodes Creek ran second to Go For Gin in a sloppy Derby 120 and Pulpit was injured when finishing fourth behind Silver Cham, Captain Bodgit and Freehouse in 1997. Air Forbes Won ran 7th in 1982, though.

Curlin has the additional historical baggage of having only three total lifetime starts. Below is a list of Derby starters that made their fourth start in the big race. It’s a much smaller sample, only 10 runners, and their average odds are almost 21-1. Last year Showing Up entered the Derby off only three starts, all wins, and ran a pretty good 6th at 26-1. The only winner among the group is, of course, the filly Regret way back in 1915.

The Need For Three

The shakiest Derby rule in my opinion is the two prep rule. It’s true that only two horses in the past 60 years, Jet Pilot in 1947 and Sunny’s Halo in 1983, won the Derby with fewer than three prior races as a sophomore. But the simple fact is that all thoroughbreds are making fewer and fewer starts in America. According to The Jockey Club, the authority on such matters, all North American thoroughbreds made an average of 9.21 starts in 1980. In 2006, that figure was down to 6.45. It’s only a matter of time before a Derby winner comes off a two prep schedule (and maybe someday soon even one prep).

Indeed, the past several Derby winners have been trending down in number of pre-May starts. The past five Derby winners averaged 6.2 starts before the first Saturday in May, while the previous 10 winners averaged 8.4 starts.

The prospective Derby field will contain at least five runners that have made only two starts this year. They include probable second choice Street Sense, as well as, Circular Quay, Dominican, Great Hunter and Stormello.

Since (and including) 1983, 38 horses have tried the Derby off a pair of three year-old races. Their average odds are almost 16-1 and their average finish position is 9.5. Interestingly, four of those horses, Victory Gallop, Lemon Drop Kid, Point Given and Birdstone went on to win the Belmont Stakes.

The Verdict Is In

I’m going to let Curlin beat me in the Kentucky Derby. While horses like Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, Great Hunter, Scat Daddy, Circular Quay and Nobiz Like Shobiz have been trained all year with the Derby in mind, Curlin has been trained (by two different trainers) and raced to see if he even belongs in the field. I’m going under the assumption that Curlin is the most talented horse in the race, but I’m also assuming that he has already run his best race this spring and won’t be able to do it again on the first Saturday in May.

On the other hand, I’m still considering the two prep horses, especially Street Sense. They’ve had the luxury to have been trained and raced to reach their peak on May 5 after considerable juvenile campaigns. I just have to figure out of they’re good enough. I’ll post the new Horse Blog Derby Contender rankings next time.

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Matt O'Neil has been a racing enthusiast since the mid-1980's. He is a freelance writer and thoroughbred marketing consultant and editor of the breeding journal Owner-Breeder International. Contact Matt O'Neil