The Kentucky Derby Pick

The Kentucky Derby Pick

Insight and commentary on the world of thoroughbred horse racing.

Thoughts and opinions about the fascinating sport of thoroughbred horse racing from a racing insider.

Any Given Saturday will win the Kentucky Derby

I had my moment of clarity on Derby Monday morning. It came after a weekend of rushing around Keeneland and Churchill Downs trying to see as many Derby horses in the flesh as possible. It came after a weekend of endlessly viewing replays of workouts and pouring over the information stored in my Derby-crazed brain. But thankfully, it came and I can now start thinking about how to bet the race as opposed to who to bet.

I had forgotten that’s the way it usually works with me. Sometimes it’s Derby morning before it hits me, like Real Quiet in 1998. Sometimes it’s half drunk after Oaks Day like Offlee Wild in 2003. Sometimes, like last year, I’ll see the Derby winner standing on backstretch the week before the race and I’ll recognize his greatness. I’m not always right of course, Offlee Wild was a particularly bad choice, but at some point, after all the reading and watching and listening I just decide. And all is calm.

Cowtown Cat almost swayed me. He does seem to be blossoming at the right time and I still think he’s a very dangerous horse. Hard Spun and Scat Daddy impressed me immensely too after seeing them in person for the first time. I had Street Sense in the Breeders’ Cup last year and he hasn’t done anything wrong since. Great Hunter is more than capable of jumping up and running his best race on Saturday and Curlin certainly looks like he’s the real deal.

This has been by far the most difficult Derby I’ve ever wrestled with because I just can’t cavalierly throw out three quarters of the field, rightly or wrongly, like in year’s past. There are plenty of quality horses this year and they all seem to be doing well. Not to mention that all those historical trends are already meaningless as far as I’m concerned. The fact I’ve even considered Curlin and Hard Spun and the two prep horses is evidence of that. But I’ve done about all I can do, seen about as much as I can see, read about as much as I can read and obsessed about as much as I can obsess. I’ve finally concluded that Any Given Saturday is going to win the Kentucky Derby in four days. He’s the one.

That won’t come as a surprise to regular Horse Blog readers, he’s been my horse all year long. However, I did my best to fall in love with another horse after his last race in the Wood Memorial and I looked in earnest for a new horse over this past weekend. I think it was a quote I read from Angel Cordero that finally let me decide. Angel is the best jockey I ever saw and now works as an exercise rider for Todd Pletcher. He said Any Given Saturday is a ‘warrior’. I liked the sound of that. All these horses still have some major questions to answer, but at least I’ll be betting on a horse that has never been off the board, while racing over five different racetracks. He’ll run his race like he always does and I think he has a chance to run his best race yet on Derby Day.

Of course, Cordero is also the agent for John Velasquez and they’ve chosen to ride Circular Quay in the Derby. The reason Cordero gave for that decision was that Circular Quay has run well three times at Churchill, his maiden win, a win in the Bashford Manor and a troubled second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But that’s jumping back into the morass of minutia that surrounds these Derby horses. There is way too much Derby info floating around (including this blog so thanks for reading). Of course I wouldn’t have it any other way – it’s part of the Derby experience and it’s fun to try to pay attention to it all. If I’m wrong at least I knew all I possibly could. And if I’m right, well, the Mint Juleps are on me…

Matt O'Neil has been a racing enthusiast since the mid-1980's. He is a freelance writer and thoroughbred marketing consultant and editor of the breeding journal Owner-Breeder International. Contact Matt O'Neil