Horse Racing Merchandise

Rules For Picking The Kentucky Derby

Insight and commentary on the world of thoroughbred horse racing.

Thoughts and opinions about the fascinating sport of thoroughbred horse racing from a racing insider.


Kentucky Derby Pedigrees.  Who has the right stuff to win the Kentucky Derby?

There are many things that make the Kentucky Derby a unique race and therefore extremely difficult to handicap. One of the main things that separate the Derby from other American Grade 1 races is the mile and a quarter distance. After the Triple Crown series, the Travers is the only dirt Grade 1 in the U. S. for three year-old males. So it’s a distance that none of the Derby starters has tried and may never try again. While most of this year’s contenders have given us good clues about their ability to go a furlong farther (at least) than they’ve ever run before, the lineage of these horses can provide further insight. Since I’m supposedly a pedigree expert, here are some comments the pedigrees of this year’s Derby contenders (in order of graded earnings):

Street Sense: Despite earning a juvenile championship he’s always given the impression that he’d only get better as he got older and the distances got longer. In that respect, he appears to be emulating his sire, the Irish-bred Street Cry. He was graded placed at two in the U. S. and won the Stephen Foster and 10-furlong Dubai World Cup at age four. Street Sense’s dam, Bedazzle is a daughter of Northern Dancer’s last active son Dixieland Band (also the damsire of Dominican). She was primarily a sprinter and did not earn any blacktype, but is a half sister to a stakes winner and her dam is a sister to Breeders’ Cup Sprint second and good sire Mr. Greeley.

Scat Daddy: As accomplished as he is I’ve always had some doubts about whether Scat Daddy is a true distance horse. He is from the first crop by Johannesburg, a Champion Juvenile in Europe and America in 2001, who could not reproduce that form at three. Scat Daddy is out of the unraced Mr. Prospector mare Love Style, whose own dam Likeable Style won the Grade 1 Las Virgenes at three. Scat Daddy is inbred to speed influence Mr. Prospector (4x2) and distance influence Nijinsky II (6x3).

Circular Quay: He’s another I’m not quite convinced wants to go 10 furlongs, despite his closing running style. But he has a more distance-oriented pedigree than Scat Daddy, though. Thunder Gulch, of course, won the 1995 Kentucky Derby as well as the Belmont and Travers. He has also sired the likes of Preakness-Belmont winner Point Given and 12-furlong CCA Oaks winner Tweedside. Circular Quay’s dam, Circle of Life won the Grade 1 Spinaway at two and not much else, but her dam is a granddaughter of two distance influences, Nijinsky II and Alydar.

Curlin: On paper anyway, Curlin has license to handle the mile and a quarter. His sire, the Mr. Prospector stallion Smart Strike comes from the great Sam-Son Farm family and is a half brother to Canadian Triple Crown winner and American Distaff Champion Dance Smartly. He has been a pretty versatile sire and has the distance horses Fleetstreet Dancer (Japan Cup Dirt), English Channel (Joe Hirsh Turf Classic) and Shadow Cast (Personal Ensign Stakes) to credit. Curlin is out of the unraced Deputy Minister mare Sherriff’s Deputy, who is out of a mare by Santa Anita Handicap winner Bates Motel. A bit further back in his female line one finds the likes of Beldame Stakes winner Exogenous and Champion Juvenile Filly Countess Diana.

Nobiz Like Showbiz: Runs like a horse that will go on all day and has the pedigree to back up that impression. He is by far the best runner for his sire Albert The Great, who won the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Suburban Handicap (both at 10 furlongs) in his stellar racing career. Albert The Great is, in turn, by 1994 Derby winner Go For Gin. ‘Nobiz’ is out of a Storm Cat mare whose female line traces back to New York Filly Triple Crown winner Mom’s Command and Cormorant the sire of Go For Gin.

Great Hunter- His running style suggests he’ll appreciate 10 furlongs and he’s by 2000 Derby runner up Aptitude. A son of America’s most prolific Classic-distance stallion A. P. Indy, Aptitude is also the sire of 2006 Derby third place finisher Steppenwolfer. Great Hunter is out of a two turn stakes winner by the Fappiano stallion Roy.

Stormello - Is by Stormy Atlantic, a well-bred son of Storm Cat who has primarily sired sprinter/miler types so far. Stormello certainly fits that mold and he does not get much stamina from his female side. He is out of a mare by speed influence Carson City, who in turn is out of a mare by Northern Dancer’s good French miler Lyphard. Barbaro was, of course, out of a Carson City mare too, but she was very atypical of the Carson City’s on the racetrack, doing her best work in distance turf races.

Dominican- Appears to be a true distance runner (on Polytrack anyway). He is by the young stallion El Corredor, a very fast son of Mr. Greeley. Dominican gets plenty of stamina from his female line, though. His second dam is by Secretariat (and he’s inbred to the great Triple Crown winner at 5x3) and his fourth dam is the great mare Chris Evert, winner of the 1974 New York Filly Triple Crown. She is also a sister to the dam of 1988 Derby winner Winning Colors.

Tiago- Being a half brother to 2005 Derby winner Giacomo, Tiago is obviously bred for 10 furlongs. In fact on paper he’s probably better suited to the Classic distances than his older brother who is by the brilliant Holy Bull. Tiago is by Pleasant Tap, third in the 1990 Kentucky Derby and son of 1980 Derby winner Pleasant Colony. Pleasant Tap is also a half brother to 1994 Derby winner Go For Gin.

Cowtown Cat – His connections have been quoted as saying that he’s a true two-turn horse. While that may yet prove to be true, his pedigree suggests that 10 furlongs may be a bit too far. His sire Distorted Humor is just below Storm Cat and A. P. Indy (and rising) among American stallions and has sired runners with a wide variety of aptitudes, including Derby winner Funny Cide and Travers winner Flower Alley. However, his damsire Storm Cat is more of a precocious speed influence and his second damsire Meadowlake is even more so.

Hard Spun - By the late great Danzig, Hard Spun is probably his sire’s last chance for a Kentucky Derby winner (he has only one small crop of juveniles left in the pipeline). Danzig has had some prominent Derby contenders over the years, namely 1985 favorite and third place finisher Chief’s Crown and Pine Bluff, who came back to take the Preakness. Hard Spun has plenty of distance influences in his female lineage, being out of a mare by Alydar’s son Turkoman, who is out of a mare by Epsom Derby winner Roberto.

Storm In May – Is by Tiger Ridge a Storm Cat brother to A. P. Indy and Summer Squall. He stood in Florida, where he has sired some useful runners, before being exported to South Africa. Storm In May is the 10th foal, and only stakes runner out of the Relaunch mare Laun Shawn. She hails from the family of graded winner and sire Storm Creek and the Champion Older Mare North Sider.

Slew’s Tizzy – Is by two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow who, not surprisingly, tends to sire two turn runners. His female family is nondescript but he is inbred to 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew at 4x3.

Zanjero – Has a pedigree nicely balanced between speed and stamina. His sire, Cherokee Run, was a Champion Sprinter, but also placed in the Preakness. He is out of a mare by A. P. Indy, who in turn is out of a mare by Mr. Prospector. Zanjero hails from the same extended female family as Storm in May (his dam is a sister to Storm In May’s dam).

Xchanger – Is by Exhange Rate, a son of Danzig, who won the 2000 Risen Star Stakes, but was really better suited to sprint distances as evidenced by his later win in the Grade 2 Tom Fool Handicap. He is out of a mare by speed influence Crafty Prospector and he’s inbred to Mr. Prospector at 4x3.

Any Given Saturday- The second son of Distorted Humor in the Derby field, he has more of a distance pedigree on the dam’s side than Cowtown Cat. He is out of a mare by A. P. Indy, who is out of a mare by 1989 Derby/Preakness winner Spectacular Bid. Any Given Saturday is a brother to a multiple stakes-winning sprinter, Bohemian Lady, but she is by Carson City. Under Any Given Saturday’s second dam are 2004 Holy Bull Stakes winner Second of June and Jack Flash, second in the Jim Beam Stakes (now the Lane’s End) and 7th in the 1997 Derby.

Liquidity- Is another son of Tiznow, who also had Tiz Wonderful, Tenfold and Boutrous on the Derby trail earlier this year. Liquidity is out of a mare the mare Boa, a sister to 1996 Derby eighth place finisher Alyrob. She is by the versatile sire Rahy out of a Roberto mare.

Cobalt Blue – By Pimilco Special winner Golden Missile out of a mare by distance influence El Prado (the sire of Medaglia D’oro, Borrego, Kitten’s Joy, etc.). His pedigree will be no excuse for his expected poor finish at the Derby distance.

Sam P. – Is by Cat Thief, third to Charismatic and Menifee in the 1999 Derby, and winner of that year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. He’s out of a mare by 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed and is another whose pedigree won’t stop him going 10 furlongs.

Sedgefield – The second son of Smart Strike in the prospective field, he’s a full brother to one of Smart Strike’s best runners English Channel, a multiple Grade 1-winning turf distance runner. While distance shouldn’t be a problem, Sedefield is probably better suited to turf or synthetic surfaces as his form already indicates.

Teufelsburg – Appears to have distance limitations based on his form and his pedigree suggests the same. He’s another son of Johannesburg, and is out of a mare by Champion Juvenile Devil’s Bag. He actually hails from the same female family as his sire (they share the same fourth dam). It’s an excellent family that also includes the good sires Tale of the Cat and Pulpit.

I’mawildandcrazyguy – A son of the Florida-based Wild Event, a Grade 1 winner on the turf who is half brother to Turf Champion Paradise Creek (and out of a sister to the great turf sire Theatrical). I’mawildandcrazyguy is out of an unraced mare by the sprinter Top Account. He does carry some interesting inbreeding, though, to Shenanigans, the dam of both Icecapade and the great filly Ruffian.

Chelokee- On paper this horse should have distance limitations. He’s by Zanjero’s sire Cherokee Run, but is out of a mare by the speed influence Silver Ghost. In fact, Chelokee is bred very similarly to Hopeful winner Yonaguska, who developed into useful sprinter at three. It will be interesting to see what kind of career Chelokee will have, whether he gets in the Derby field or not, as his form seems to indicate he can handle two turns easily.

Reporting For Duty – By 1997 Travers winner Deputy Commander, who has been a moderate stallion, but has sired Travers and Illinois Derby winner Ten Most Wanted. Reporting For Duty’s female line show plenty of sprinter/miler influences. He’s out of a mare by the good European miler Distant View out of a mare by the top sprinter Phone Trick.

Read more of the Horse Racing Blog...

Matt O'Neil has been a racing enthusiast since the mid-1980's. He is a freelance writer and thoroughbred marketing consultant and editor of the breeding journal Owner-Breeder International. Contact Matt O'Neil

horse racing blog

Horse Hats Home Great Racehorses Kentucky Derby Winners Kentucky Derby Handicapping Information Horse Racing Picks Thoroughbred Horse Farms Horse Racing Books Horse Posters Horse Racing Club Horse Belts Horse Racing Game