2007 belmont Stakes

2007 Belmont Stakes

Insight and commentary on the world of thoroughbred horse racing.

Thoughts and opinions about the fascinating sport of thoroughbred horse racing from a racing insider.

The Small Apple?

What if they threw a Belmont and no one came? As of this writing there are only five three-year-olds considered ‘definite’ for the Belmont Stakes, the oldest and longest of the Triple Crown races. Street Sense, isn’t one of those five. He’s considered only ‘possible’. With Hard Spun and Curlin among the ‘definites’, it sure would be nice if Street Sense showed up and give racing fans the chance to witness another epic battle.

At this point though, considerations for Street Sense go beyond just deciding whether to go for a third race in five weeks, at a mile and one half distance, for a $1 million purse. Misters Nafzger and Tafel have to take into account whether such an undertaking will compromise their horses chances for a stellar second half of the year. And part of that equation is how his second half performance will play with potential breeders.

Frankly, from a breeders and stallion manager’s perspective, Street Sense has little to gain by running in the Belmont. The powers that be in Kentucky look for four main criteria when evaluating a stallion prospect: race record (preferably somewhat precocious), sire line, female family and physicality.

Street Sense is by Street Cry, one of the world’s hottest young sires, from the female family of the good sires Mr. Greeley and Danehill Dancer. He’s a champion juvenile. He’s a Kentucky Derby winner. He’s a pretty attractive animal. I’d guess if he retired today, he would stand for at least a $50,000 fee, putting his value at around $20 million. (stud fee x 100 live foals x four years of breeding before the first crop runs is a pretty good rule of thumb in determining a new stallion’s overall value). So enhancing or at least maintaining that level of value is part of the decision making process now for his connections, whether they admit it publicly or not.

With all that Street Sense has already accomplished on the racetrack, a mile and one half win, a dinosaur distance in American racing, even in another Classic, doesn’t really add much to the figure. A second half campaign that included a Travers and/or a Breeders’ Cup Classic win would likely be much more lucrative in the long term.

I think we can trust Mr. Nafzger to do what best for Street Sense at this point in the horses’ development, though. And if he bypasses the Belmont, we’ll still have some summer showdowns to look forward to in the Haskell and Travers. Knock on wood, of course.

Matt O'Neil has been a racing enthusiast since the mid-1980's. He is a freelance writer and thoroughbred marketing consultant and editor of the breeding journal Owner-Breeder International. Contact Matt O'Neil