Early 2007 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Insight and commentary on the world of thoroughbred horse racing.

Thoughts and opinions about the fascinating sport of thoroughbred horse racing from a racing insider.

It’s (Derby) Time

January 15, 2007

Racing fans didn’t need the Fair Grounds to call Saturday’s card ‘The Road to the Derby Kickoff’. We didn’t need to see ads in the Louisville papers asking for registrants for a new Derby Festival event called the ‘Corporate Battle of the Bounce’ (whatever that is). It’s mid-January and we know it’s time. It’s time to begin looking toward Churchill Downs and a bright and sunny first Saturday in May.

This will be the first in a series of looks at the contenders for Derby immortality. I’ve decided to mention only the three year-old that I think can win going a mile and a quarter on May 5. In the past I’ve been right a few times. Alysheba, Unbridled, Sea Hero, Real Quiet and Barbaro are in my stable of Derby winners (and Grindstone saved me in 1996 when I took Editor’s Note, but I don’t really count that). Go For Gin, Silver Charm, Monarchos and Giacomo are winners that I was on at one point or another prior to their wins, but ended up on one of the losers after all.

I’ll likely change my mind a more than a few times (for better or for worse) in the coming months and won’t be constrained by a set number of what I consider to be legitimate contenders. Right now there are eight horses I think can win the Derby with Any Given Saturday ranked on top. I’m looking forward to betting him when the first Churchill Future Book opens for business on February 8. His price should be right and he has shown some sneaky good form.

There are some good horses, like Stomello, Tiz Wonderful (the only horse to beat Any Given Saturday), and Day Pass that I didn’t include on my initial list. At this point, as much as they’ve shown, I just don’t consider them Derby material. Then there are others like Unbridled Express and Les Grand Trois, who ran impressively last year in limited starts, but will have to get back on the work tab soon to be considered.

Here’s a little more on Any Given Saturday and seven three year-olds that I believe, as of mid-January, can win the 133rd Kentucky Derby:

Any Given Saturday- This colt has won two of three races while encountering difficult circumstances each time. He broke from post twelve going five and a half furlongs at Turfway Park in his debut and got up despite going six wide turning for home. He was again very wide after being rank in the early stages of the Kentucky Jockey Club and ran greenly through the lane to be second to the unbeaten Tiz Wonderful. He’s by Distorted Humor (sire of Funny Cide, Travers winner Flower Alley, etc.) out of a mare by distance influence A. P. Indy. This $1.1 million yearling looks to have a world of potential and is in the best of hands (Pletcher).

Great Hunter -This son of 2000 Derby runner up Aptitude has yet to run a bad race. He was very game when chasing home some good ones on the typically speed favoring California tracks and showed his stuff going turns for the first time in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. He probably peaked in that win and can be forgiven for faltering in the Juvenile after challenging for the lead at the top of the stretch. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him under a garland of roses come May 5.

Hard Spun - A son of Danzig trained by veteran mid-western horseman Larry Jones. He’s unbeaten so far in four starts and I was duly impressed by his race in the Lecomte, where he easily handled an overmatched but experienced field. I love the way this horse moves, he has an effortless stride, much like Discreet Cat. Danzig is a bit of a question at 10 furlongs, but there are plenty of distance influences in Hard Spun’s female line. I can’t argue with anyone on his bandwagon right now (save room for me).

Street Sense - He was my best bet of the Breeders’ Cup Day card, but I certainly didn’t expect that. I thought he was a good form cycle play that day, pretty much converse of Great Hunter. The knocks on his BC performance are legitimate, though (a perfect trip on a golden rail). But he is bred for distance races and has proven he can pop a big one on his day. His trainer knows a thing or two about winning the Derby too. I won’t be afraid to play him if it looks like he’s peaking again in early May.

Nobiz Like Showbiz - I’m on board with everyone else as far as this horse’s talent is concerned. The sky could very well be the limit for this one and he’s bred to run as long as they can card them. But he’s a very big colt who has yet to endure the slightest adversity. I can see him getting in a whole lot of trouble in a 20 horse Derby field and it will be hard to play him at a short price. The grandson of 1994 Derby winner Go For Gin is my Belmont horse right now.

Birdbirdistheword - Based on his 4th place run in the Breeders’ Futurity this colt has about five lengths to make up on the big boys. It’s impressive that he’s shown the same good acceleration on three different surfaces and he looks like he’s as game as they come. I’m not sure how good this colt is, but if he continues to move forward, and some of the other contenders fall by the wayside, he could very easily be a factor on Derby Day.

Circular Quay - He’s another who has never run a bad race, but I’m not convinced that this horse is anything but a good closing sprinter. He showed exceptional acceleration in his first three starts, all sprints. When stretched out, though, in the Breeders’ Futurity and the BC Juvenile, he appeared to lose a bit of his punch (but none of his try, much like his grandsire Gulch). It can be argued that the Polytack at Keeneland and the track bias at Churchill conspired against him. I’m prepared to be wrong about him if he can win a solid two-turn prep this spring.

Dilemma - A son of Grand Slam out of a mare by 1994 Belmont winner Tabasco Cat might just be a closing sprinter, too. He came flying to win the Sunny Slope going six furlongs at Santa Anita and closed from 10 lengths back to fall a nose short in the seven furlong Hollywood Prevue. We’ll have to see how his powerful late kick translates going long, but unlike Circular Quay, I get the feeling he will handle the stretch out just fine.

Matt O'Neil has been a racing enthusiast since the mid 1980's. He currently works for Taylor Made Stallions, Inc. in Central Kentucuky and is published regularly in Owner-Breeder International and The Florida-Horse. Contact Matt O'Neil