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Longshots and value horses selected by the Donerail Project

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Donerail Project

The Donerail Project

The Donerail Project was created by a group of computer scientists and horse racing fans. Their goal was to use computer software and probability theory to analyze data in hopes of finding undervalued horses. The project takes its name from the 1913 Kentucky Derby winner who paid $184 to win.

Using over 30 data points for each horse, the system analyzes the chances of each horse in a race, computes actual odds, then compares the horses to their morning line odds in order to find value plays.

These "longshot" plays have been profitable on their own, and extremely profitable when used inside exotic bets (exactas, trifectas, superfectas).

These picks are available exclusively through Insider Racing Picks.

The Donerail Selections are valuable when played individually in Win, Place or Show bets, but their true value can be realized in when making exotic wagers (Exactas, Trifectas, Superfectas). The Donerail picks are sent with suggested horses to use in exotic wagers. On a typical day, 4-8 Donerail picks are sent. The picks are always sent on Fridays, Saturdays, & Sundays and on holidays with major racing. Weekday racing is usually very low quality with small fields and the Donerail Project has found very little value in betting the small circuit tracks that run on weekdays. Donerail picks will sometimes be sent for major circuit tracks with large fields that run on weekdays (Saratoga, Keeneland, etc.)

Suggested Use of Donerail picks in exotic wagers:

Aqueduct Jan. 29
Race 4 - # 2 Media Starlett

Use with (4,8,3,6)

A possible Exacta bet would be constructed using the main pick (#2 Media Starlett) in an exacta wheel with the 4 other suggested horses:
$2 exacta 2/4,8,3,6 - cost $8
$2 exacta 4,8,3,6/2 - cost $8

Total bet $16, return $54.00

A possible Trifecta bet would be constructed using the main pick (#2 Media Starlett) in a Trifecta wheel with the 4 other suggested horses:
$2 Trifecta 2/4,8,3,6/4,8,3,6 - cost $12
$2 Trifecta 2/4,8,3,6/4,8,3,6 - cost $12
$2 Trifecta 2/4,8,3,6/4,8,3,6 - cost $12

Total bet $36, return $258.00

The Donerail picks can be used in a similar wheel in Superfectas.

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